Friday, 18 May 2012

Will It? Or Won't It?

It would seem that the Euro is going through another of its periodic epileptic fits again, where much chatter resides on alleged major developments:
The European Union is working on an emergency Greek exit plan as the break-up of the euro looms, a senior Brussels official has revealed. 
That the euro cannot continue in its current form is pretty obvious - I just wish they would get on with it. So while we tire of the seemingly never-ending circus of crisis, it is inevitable that at some point a breakup or exit must come to pass - the tricky bit is gauging when.

So it's tempting, as it's a Friday - which is a good time to announce bad economic news or fundamental economic changes ahead of the weekend to prepare for Monday morning - to take this report seriously:
(Reuters) - De La Rue (DLAR.L) has drawn up contingency plans to print drachma banknotes should Greece exit the euro and approach the British money printer, an industry source told Reuters on Friday.
 However, according to Business Insider:
Is Greece Already Stepping Back From The Ledge?
A couple of new polls have the conservative New Democracy party leading, and a report in Ekathimerini suggests that New Democracy is shoring up its coalition.

The Greeks want change, but they don't want to leave the Euro, and if it looks like SYRIZA's leader Alexis Tsipras is overplaying his hand, and risking a GREXIT, then he may get punished.
In short no-one knows. Yes the Euro's flawed, and yes it will breakup but when is another question. My guess is Greece will still be in the Euro this time next week.

1 comment:

  1. One should look towards those who will BENEFIT from the exit of Greece - and what parameters it would take for those benefits to come to fruition - to find out the 'when' of it.
    And I'm not talking 'countries'....