But no worries, shares are all up strongly this morning, so everything must be rosy in the garden.
Just the math, something Europe is unable to do:
- Greece has €350 billion in total debt including about €70 billion in Troika "post-petition" loans; these are untouched.
- Of the €280 billion, roughly €75 billion is held by the ECB: this, like the Troika loans, will be untouched.
- This leaves just ~€200 billion in actual debt to undergo a haircut.
- Apply a 50% haircut to this debt (ignoring the fact that of this about €35 billion is held by Greek pension funds, and once the realization that Greek pensions have been cut in half dawns upon the population, the result will be the biggest riots ever seen in Athens yet).
- Total debt to be cut: just about €100 billion.
- Hence, of the total €350 billion, just €100 billion is eliminated, most of it used to backstop and service Greek pension and retirement obligations
- €250, or the residual, of €350, the original, means 72%, or a 28% haircut.
- Greek GDP was €230 billion on December 31, 2010 and declining fast.
- And that is how a 50% haircut is "cut" almost in half
Thursday, 27 October 2011
That Deal (2)
Again, according Zerohedge, the EU's numbers don't add up (this is where the July bailout deal fell apart). The proposed 50% haircut on Greek debt (which hasn't even been agreed yet) is not even 50% but only 28%. Here's his post in full (his emphasis):